Polling Frenzy: Here are the Numbers

The first thing I did this morning was check for any new national poll results. It’s what I’ve been doing every morning for a few weeks, to get a sense of whether there is any movement. Where are things trending? I know that the next president will be determined in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, or perhaps where the political season begins, in Iowa. But the state preferences and trends do seem to follow the national ones, so they’re worth watching, too.



The partisan talking heads pick a few polls each day on which to base their comments, and most commentators have staked themselves to the position that the polls are “all over the place,” essentially canceling each other out.



Well, let’s dip our toe into the polling pool and see what it says today. We’ll check back the next two Fridays:



Latest as of Oct. 22



National



Fox News

Bush 49 Kerry 42



Wash Post/ABC

Bush 51 Kerry 45



CNN/USA Today/Gallup

Bush 52 Kerry 44



Time

Bush 48 Kerry 46



Newsweek

Bush 50 Kerry 45



CBS News

Bush 47 Kerry 45



Zogby

Bush 46 Kerry 45



Pew Research Center

Bush 47 Kerry 47



Associated Press/IPSOS

Bush 46 Kerry 49





Key Battleground States



Penn. (NBC/Knight Ridder)

Bush 45 Kerry 46



Iowa (NBC/Knight Ridder)

Bush 49 Kerry 43



Ohio (Gallup)

Bush 47 Kerry 48



Florida (Mason Dixon)

Bush 48 Kerry 45



Michigan (Detroit News)

Bush 47 Kerry 43



Wisconsin (Gallup)

Bush 49 Kerry 46

--James Jewell