Picking the Presidential Winner With 1 Week to Go

The means of electioneering, message spin, and the nuancing of public opinion becomes tragically ridiculous at this stage of closely contested campaigns. It’s a shame that so many people seem to make up their minds in the final days before voting, because no one should listen to campaign rhetoric in the last week. It becomes overly shallow, strident, and caricatured. Anyone who is undecided at this point should stay home.



At any time, and especially during these stretches of inane closing banter, it is easy to view politics as a parlor game. Clearly, compared to the battle for hearts, minds, and souls of people and the larger questions of eternity, who flies in Air Force One is not all that important. There is, however, reason to be passionate about the 2004 political choices.



George W. Bush is a man of moral clarity and authentic personal faith who understands the evil of Islamic extremism and the need for national strength and, if necessary, lonely sacrifice to protect America from the forces that seek to destroy it.



I have been praying every day that God will save our land. It is my strong conviction that we will be in grave danger in many fundamental ways if the Senator from Massachusetts prevails next Tuesday. The re-election of President Bush is vital to a future of peace, safety, and moral fortitude.



With one week to go, those who agree with this sentiment can be provisionally encouraged. Yesterday’s national poll numbers were promising, and the electoral map had a clearer shade of red.



I’ve been told for some time now that the only poll worth paying attention to is the Zogby poll. Zogby called the 2000 election dead on, and as his website boosts: “came within one-tenth of one percent of the presidential result in 1996.”



Yesterday afternoon (Mon., 10/25), Zogby’s daily tracking poll showed Bush’s national lead expanding from two to three points (Bush 48%, Kerry 45%).



Zogby said, “President Bush continues to gain ground over Democratic nominee John Kerry. . . .The President has opened up a 12-point lead among Independents. While each candidate is polling solidly among most of his base constituency, Kerry should be concerned that his numbers among Hispanics appear to be anemic.”



Zogby has been tracking the 10 states he and most people think will determine the winner. Yesterday, his tracking polls in these states showed:



Colorado—Kerry 49, Bush 45

Florida—Bush 49, Kerry 46

Iowa—Bush 47, Kerry 45

Michigan—Kerry 52, Bush 42

Minnesota—Kerry 46, Bush 45

New Mexico—Bush 49, Kerry 44

Nevada—Bush 48, Kerry 44

Ohio—Bush 47, Kerry 42

Pennsylvania—Kerry 47, Bush 45

Wisconsin—Bush 48, Kerry 45



Democratic-leaning Electoral-vote.com, which has a daily count on its site using the poll numbers from various pollsters, had Bush up yesterday 285 to 247. Electoral-vote.com’s picks match Zogby’s top 10. The surprise on this site is Arkansas, which is seen as a toss-up.



It’s hard to believe Arkansas will end up a blue state in the sea of southern red—I’ll give that one to Bush. On the other hand, Electoral-vote.com has Hawaii listed as a Bush state; that would be a shock—I’ll give that one to Kerry.



Other than that, barring an effective last minute smear—such as the DUI revelation four years ago—it's not likely any of these will change. Earlier it looked as though Michigan and Minnesota may be headed Bush’s way, which would have been earth shattering. They’ll probably stay blue. Iowa has been voting for the Democrat in recent years; it would be one that may slide to blue.



I’ll take my electoral guess one week out—Bush 287, Kerry 250.



And I’ll pray that no one listens to the candidates, surrogates, and pundits in the final week.

--James Jewell